The public vastly overestimates how much asylum seekers account for in UK immigration, according to new research.

A survey found that, on average, respondents thought those seeking asylum represent 37 per cent of total immigration when actually they accounted for only around seven per cent in the year ending in June 2024.

More than one in five (22 per cent) thought asylum makes up more than half of the UK’s total immigration, according to findings from the Immigration Attitudes Tracker by British Future and Ipsos.

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Half of those surveyed expect net migration to go up over the next 12 months, while only 12 per cent said they thought it would fall.

But the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory has said it expects a decline in net migration over the coming year.

Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future think tank, said: “Most people will be surprised to see net migration falling over the next 12 months.

“PM Keir Starmer will exceed public expectations, giving him breathing room to reshape the government’s approach – though [former home secretary] James Cleverly may argue that he deserves the credit.”

Home Office data published last month showed a drop in the number of visas issued to foreign workers which the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory said that, when combined with rising emigration, “should mean a decline in net migration over the coming year”.

Mr Cleverly claimed those figures were proof that measures put in place when he was in office are taking effect.

Mr Katwala said: “Most people massively overestimate how much of the UK’s immigration is for asylum, and these skewed perceptions give us an unbalanced debate about the immigration we actually have.”

The public underestimates how much of migration is for work and study, the research found.

The public on average thought that a quarter of immigration (26 per cent) is for work when the actual figure is around 40 per cent.

They estimate on average that only 19 per cent is for study at UK universities when it is actually around 38 per cent.

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Support for reducing immigration has gone up from 42 per cent in February 2022 to 55 per cent in the most recent survey, according to the tracker research, which has followed attitudes to immigration since 2015.

But the respondents struggled to identify what type of immigration they would cut back given the choice.

They were asked to pick from a list of migrant roles including doctors, care workers, catering staff and engineers, but support for reducing migrants was no higher than 30 per cent in almost every category.

Bankers were the only exception, where 37 per cent wanted a reduction.

Ipsos interviewed 3,000 adults across Great Britain between July 29 and August 12.